…Huge Technical computer difficulties today…last trading day of the month…
11:04am
…DOW +104…finally, my service is back up…the problem so far today…lack of freakin movement…less movement now=less movement all day…
11:59am
…DOW +106..it is right there to the upside for the taking…but the range of movement today is a not helpful…without the moves, there won’t be moves…SPY @ 79.89 has 80 right thereto blow thru…but potential seems limited until the breakout actually happens…so, can’t buy the breakout, unitl there is a breakout, and then it may be too late…get it?….my data for the charts is very sketchy today…on then off, then on…when it was down this morning, I felt blind, even though I had a number of other charts to monitor, they did not read the same way I am used to, and they looked foreign…anyway, here is a breakdown right now, lets see where it leads…DOW +88…
12:03pm
…DOW +89…a number of times the market had the chance and the setup to break through, w/out the proper setup…each time it followed through to the downside instead of the upside….that has to change…
12:44pm
…DOW +93…buyers and sellers beware…this lack of movement today will disappoint both longs and shorts…no matter how nice the setup, the day in total looks frustrating and futile…if that changes I’ll be here, but later in the day means less and less as TIME gets later…
…Monday morning…2 trading days left in the month…after last Monday’s huge move up…looks like end of month bump for mutual funds has played out…until 2:30pm Tuesday afternoon…then we shall see if the market forces the late buyers to pay up in order to get the month end print for their portfolio…
9:53am
…DOW -230…a reaction just after the 10:00am area will provide some ideas of the possibilities for the rest of the day…Monday’s are not real big, gap and fill days…Monday are better at gap and go further days, both long and short…but the next :30 may reveal intentions…
11:10am
…DOW -280….when is enough selling enough, when is enough buying enough…here is something NO ONE else has spoken about very recently…I think, since I do not watch CNBC very much, maybe they all are talking about it…one indicator to watch for is the infamous but totally missed TRADING COLLARS…remember when we hit those all the time!…since they were expanded to 10% I have not seen them hit once…when the buying or selling gets to an extreme, look PROGRAM TRADING curbs in your neighborhood…this is not to say today is the day…it has been years since they were hit, so even with today down -3.50% and last Monday +5%…they may not come before the Final Four…but when they do make the headlines, extremes will be near…
1:02pm
…DOW -274…short?…not yet…need new lows to even introduce a short trade…the RAZOR level filters have not even been breached once yet today…short is the trade, but as of now—there is not trade…but, lots of room to expand..
1:09pm
…DOW -280…this slow drip down day does not have a great track record of completing the task it started the day with…
1:24pm
…DOW-275….it is TIME….SPY 78.62…S&P @ 786…stick it or lick it…one or the other…
1:37pm
…DOW -289…here goes the attempt at the short side, which should win overall today, but i am not following this market down in this move…RAZOR FILTERS say so…nothing until a time with a 2:00pm behind it…HUH?…two o’clock OK….I can’t give away all my secre…I mean RAZOR FILTERS….
1:44pm
…DOW -281…maybe I am too picky, which does happen often, but in this case a selloff is still likely, but what it yields is what I doubt…we are almost too close not to have one, but it will be without my short for this time slot….
1:47pm
…DOW -307…2 minutes later we are at new lows…
1:53pm
…DOW -301…and the short chance is coming fast…5-6 minutes away…
2:11pm
…DOW -299…the surge down may be very close to over for this round…reload just in case…no trades yet…latest 5 min bar gave up the ghost, and a RAZOR stop out for the move down…at 78.46 SPY…
2:21pm
…DOW -283…good stuff…SPY at 78.60..figures…the next setup will be in 20-30 and that is just when the bus stop is calling…I’ve been tuned in all day , waiting……….
2:25pm
…DOW -279…enough waiting…SELL short SPY @ 78.62…@ 2:25pm…potential for the next 3 minutes to really break down…that is the trade with a tight stop…
2:28pm
…Uhh..yes…breakdown right on TIME…SPY @ 78.40…
2:31pm
…DOW -300…good night Irene !…SPY @ 78.35…
…Target= a race to the bottom on the close…just a plan…lets see if anything changes it…
2:55pm
…DOW -315…falling stop is close to taking out this short…SPY @ 78.21…above 78.31 takes me out…good trades back off and leave the stop…if there are not good, they stop out…easy as that…SPY @78.16 backing off for now…stop moves at 3:00pm and not necessarily down…
…new lows below 78.04 would be big here…78.11…
3:01pm…got em’!…SPY @ 78.01… S&P 500 -35 @ 780…timing is right for a melt into the close…probably with lots of volatility…
3:06pm
…DOW -328…next drop off is setup for the next 8 minutes…unless the SPY gets back above 78.30…78.12 right now…
3:11pm
…SELL SPY @ 78.31 @ 3:10 pm…not to be, and too late to reenter for RAZOR…got a good entry area at 78.62…so worth my while…and a good training area for some RAZOR STRATEGY trades…
…after the gains this week, it is not TGIF…too bad this week has to end…2 trading days after today, left in the trading month and quarter…big times ahead…
9:59am
…DOW -119…it is early but the range is tight…10:30am will bring great information for the rest of the day…
…here a video from Wednesday 3-25-09:
10:54am
…DOW -106…the S&P 500 is -10 @ 822…but the days range is puny…like .80cents…I will wait until it springs at least a full dollar $1.00…but, we are now where near a sell area, and in the middle of a buy area right now…if the range was wider, I’d be long the SPY now…but it isn’t and I’m not just for that reason… SPY 82.23…
11:46am
…DOW -87…the move right now is to fill in the gap down open…SPY 83.11 is that move…I’ll take 82.80…in the next :12 minutes or I’m out…
…BUY SPY @ 82.41 @ 11:45:18am
11:54am
…DOW -88…TIME is not my friend when I’m long and the market is down 100 points…7 more minutes…SPY 82.24…looking for a 5 min period of separation for the market to the upside…I’ve been more than patient so far…not much longer…it should happen very quickly when it hits…and in the next 9 minutes…
12:08pm
…DOW -96…sell SPY @ 82.32 @ 12:08pm…could not wait any longer…try something else if it comes along…the market is 100 points from a sell area…that would be DOW 7730 we are at 7830…until then the buy side has the floor, but TIME is working against the longs…
12:24pm
…DOW -124…the market is getting hit by TIME…and PRICE is following…SPY @ 82.04…and it isn’t going to get any better in the next few minutes…also…the SPY has expanded its range to just at $1.00 …HIGH is 82.53 …LOW is 81.50… that is what made the last RAZOR TRADE possible…
12:29pm
…it is now food time…if I don’t eat by 1:00pm…my concentration is dead…and it still gives me TIME to get caffeinated…
12:42pm
…DOW -118…one last chance to break up to the gap open…by 1:00pm the S&P needs to get even…
1:41pm
…DOW -154…interesting 7 minute 60 point move…bye-bye—-DOW -166…the market did not use the TIME allowed in negative territory very wisely…and it is now paying the price…the market is right above that DOW 7730 I spoke about at 11:54am…
…I promise you, the S&P has a giant sell stop at the S&P 800 area…currently 815…
2:27pm
…DOW -139…and a whole lot of churning going on…I wouldn’t touch this market right now…it is waiting for something that won’t happen today…
…if funds want to get a position to report on the quarter, they don’t need a weekend between them and April 1st…that leaves Monday and Tuesday…I’m off to the bus stop and out….
4:08pm
…DOW -148…now that is a churn…since previous entry at 2:27pm…market did NOTHING…churn…that is 3 days in a row…2 trading days left in the 1st quarter…
…DOW +62…the range is tight but the volatility is high…big things coming…upside seems the obvious choice, but todays setup is not cool yet…
12:10pm
…DOW +88…3 trading days left in the quarter…i have looked at many of the top mutual funds holdings…look at the top ten holdings and Cash shows up often as high as #2 top holding…they will have to keep bidding up this market to get that cash holding out of sight…with only 3 days left this quarter…the risk for the funds seem small, so look for a number of days of window dressing…however…mutual funds do not yield near the power they held before ETF’s hit this market…funds are still huge, but with 40% declines in their portfolio, courtesy of 2008 performance. and growing defects to ETF’s this buying frenzy may be muted from here thru Tuesday March 31…stay tuned..
1:11pm
…DOW +148…big move up…but the big move is still ahead of us if the market stays around S&P 830…it is now 1:13pm…if the market caps highs for another :45 minutes…2:00pm could be very big…between now and then, some shuffling around we be nice…but the swings will be big…the range of high to low is still small, but the moves are cooking…get on the long side of that at the right TIME and the RAZOR TRADE is on…lot of but’s and if’s…be ready to change plans if needed…S&P at 828…
1:16pm
…DOW +140…keep in mind, this is still a bear market…take in big gains at any sign of a day over day low…take profits, regroup, trade again and take profits…this market is as hot on the upside as the downside was, and the sentiment will turn just when things get comfortable, especially when the month rolls over…
1:22pm
…DOW +169…no stopping here …new highs mean a new plan…and I don’t have it yet…
2:01pm
…DOW +154…without a doubt my trading groove has been off the past 2 weeks…so I am cutting down the size of trades, and just going after the trade, small 100 shares rounds and get my confidence back…
…BUY 100 @ 82.81 @ 1:45pm…small position, but I have recently expanded the stop areas to fit this more volatile market…this stop is at 82.40…with a 83.40 target before 2:30pm…target changes after 2:30pm…
…2:05pm
…S&p 500 at 831…earlier I mentioned 830 and we are moving through that…SPY at 83.19…
2:17pm
…DOW +148…sell 100 @ 82.88…just not fast enough, along w/some of my filters…try again? maybe at 2:30 or 2:45pm…
2:30pm
…DOW +115…that is why they pay me the big bucks…SPY at 82.49…collapsing pretty fast…the trade took to long to get to key areas…the longer you are in a trade without hitting targets, the RISK of TIME starts to work against you…
2:52pm
…DOW +93…my boys are not home from school 2 minutes and I have to listen to their video game non-sense…absolutely no ability to concentrate from here on out…DOW +90…SPY @ 82.33…RAZOR TRADE didn’t get much done today, but the one trade was executed very well…well enough to know when to get out…this last hour is no longer set up for the upside…S&P 500 below 830 at 825 right now…see you manana…
…DOW +159…lately the RAZOR content has been minimal…it seems the times i had something to say was right at important times, and those times are exactly when concentration needs to be highest…thus, less to write about even as I sink deeper into the S&P 500 and the tracking stock SPY…
12:20pm
…DOW +147…this is Wednesday…and it may make a run at the easiest price…which is…..the gap open…but other filters say different…that would reason the limited movement since the first hour…but that movement was pretty big…
...3-26-09 update : sure enough, that gap open was filled...
1:47pm
…DOW +37…second day in a row I could not see anything for a setup…both days just kinda fell apart…I’ll note that in the future…easy target was the gap which was just filled…easy to see that, tough to trade it…w specially with a move to the highest level since 2-17-09 earlier this morning…the rest of the day looks just as muddled to me…sorry, I got nothing for a day trade right here on the S&P 500…
…DOW +47…flat to the finish would fit the I don’t know void at RAZOR TRADING…
2:08pm
…DOW -49…I spent an hour this morning looking for a place to view the news for the Feds 5 yr auction results…NO WHERE…anyhow, the results are out and they were not good…not that I would trade off of that, but the time would have nice…
2:54pm
…DOW -88…
…VIDEO UPDATE…
3:32pm
…DOW -20…never got drilled in on today action…let’s do it again tomorrow…
